According to a recent article reported on MSN Money, economists are pointing at the convergence of two trends - a depressed level of home construction (new home starts in 2009 were one-third of the historical norm of 1.6 million), and the inevitable emergence of a generation that will soon be entering the work force and forming households - that could cause a shortage.

Overbuilt markets such as south Florida, Las Vegas and Phoenix may not be in danger of such a squeeze anytime soon. But the article identifies Western states such as Oregon, New Mexico and Utah, where housing supply and demand is considered to be in balance, as locations that could be under supplied as early as mid-2012.

The Group Real Estate Insider. Believe it or not: Housing shortage could be on the Horizon. September. Volume 34, No. 9

Traditionally, a valuable measure of any new home market is the months of inventory available for sale. For example, if 10 homes have sold over the past year in a certain market segment, and there are 10 homes currently available for purchase, then it follows that there is a 12-month supply of homes on the market. Most experts agree that a six-month supply represents a healthy equilibrium in a local market.

Through extensive research conducted by The Group Inc., we've found a number of "phantom listings" in the Northern Colorado market that have exaggerated new home inventory and artificially increased the months of supply. These "phantom listings" consist of properties that appear on the Multiple Listing Service as being available for sale, when in fact the home is not yet under construction. Because construction is not under way, it could be many months before the home is actually ready for purchase. For example, there are currently 37 new homes in the Fort Collins market listed for sale priced between $200,000 and $250,000. However, only seven of those are under construction and 30 are considered "phantom listings."

It is important for sellers, buyers and lenders to have a true picture of the new home market. Contact me for more details on "phantom listings" and the state of the new home market.

The Group Inc. Real Estate. New home market stronger than it appears: impact of "phantom listings." Volume 34, Number 9. September 2010.

Other findings from the study include:

- CSU employees represent 11 percent of household income in Fort Collins.

- CSU generates more than $300 million in annual research spending.

- CSU research results in a 0.2 percent increase in overall productivity of Colorado firms, worth $79.7 million annually.

- Students spend $168 million in Fort Collins each year, which supports 628 jobs.

- CSU employs 6,200 workers and approximately 50,000 CSU alumni are employed in the state.

- Spin-off companies created by CSU research have created 550 jobs in the state.

The Group Inc. Real Estate. Study finds CSU stirs Colorado's economy. Volume 34, No. 6

The Be Local 20/20 Challenge, sponsored by Be Local Northern Colorado, asks residents to pledge to spend $20 per week from their normal household budget at local, independent businesses for the next 20 years.

As of May 21, 2010 634 people had accepted the 20/20 Challenge. The direct dollar amount impact of this is $253,000. With the economic multiplier effect, where a dollar turns over and circulates in the economy four to seven times, these 634 people have at least $1,014,400 dollar impact on our local economy.

To learn more or take the 20/20 Challenge pledge, visit www.belocalnc.org/2020-challenge/

The Group Inc. Real Estate. How 634 = $1 million: Be Local. Volume 34, No. 6.

- Second largest share of adult households who purchase homes

- One quarter of all first-time home buyers

- 17 percent of all repeat buyers

- 58 percent of single-women buyers were first-time buyers

The Group Inc. Real Estate Insider. Survey finds single women have growing role in housing market. Volume 34, No. 6

As of May 15, CSU reported 8,548 in-state applications, up 1 percent over last year's total of 8,467. UNC has fielded 6,325 in-state applications. Out-of-state applications at CSU, meanwhile, slipped this year, with 6,390 requests for acceptance, down 6 percent. UNC reported 1,268 out-of-state applications.

Overall, to date CSU has received 14,938 applications, and expects the freshman class to total about 4,500, likely making it the largest incoming class ever. The previous freshman class record was 4,404 in 2008. The 2010 class is also shaping up to be the most ethnically diverse ever, with a 15 percent increase in minorities. UNC has received 7,593 applications, a 7 percent overall increase from 2009. The school expects 3 percent growth for the incoming class over last year's 2,377 freshman class.

The Group Real Estate Insider. In-state applications to CSU on record pace: UNC up 7%. Volume 34, No. 6.

While such rate increases may seem minimal, each percentage increase can have significant ramifications on purchase power. That's because each 1 percent increase in mortgage rates erodes total buying power by 10 percent. So, if you are in the market for a $300,000 house, and rates increase from 5.0 percent, you'll need to adjust your price point down to $285,000.

The Group Inc. Real Estate. Economist: 30-year mortgages to reach 5.6 percent by end of 2010. Volume 34, No. 6.

The Group Inc. Real Estate Insider. Report Focuses on Fort Collins among cities on the rebound. Volume 34, No. 6.

Another way to interpret the PMI report - Fort Collins-Loveland homes have an 89.6 percent chance of holding steady or increasing in price.

The PMI score, which is recalculated every quarter, projects risk for a two-year period. The risk for the Fort Collins-Loveland market declined significantly in the fourth quarter, down from reaching 20.4 percent in the third quarter. Nationally, Fort Collins-Loveland ranked 54th safest out of 384. The average risk for depreciation is 53 percent across the country.

Price risk is generally improving across the country. Out of 384 metro areas surveyed, risk declined in 356. And the number of metro areas in the highest-risk category (90 percent or higher) decreased by 26.4 percent. The number of metros in the lowest-risk category (10 percent or less) increased by 79 percent. Seven of the 10 highest-risk cities are located in south Florida.

The Group Real Estate Insider. Report: Fort Collins-Loveland homes a better bet for price gains. Volume 34, No. 6.

The Group Real Estate Insider. That's a lot for a lot. Volume 34, No. 4.

The ranking, which evaluated economic performance between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the fourth quarter 2009, was based on employment growth, gross metropolitan product, and home price appreciation. Brookings Mountain West, based in Las Vegas, is a public policy think tank backed by the Brookings Institution.

The Group Real Estate Insider. FC-Loveland top performer among small Mountain West cities. Volume 34, Number 4.

Strong marketing helps a home stand out among a multitude of properties for sale. But it is important to understand that great marketing will not compensate for inferior condition or poor pricing.

The Group Real Estate Source Insider. Sellers ought to stack odds in their favor this Spring. April 2010.

A competitive list price at the beginning is the most effective strategy. Buyers are hesitant to make an offer on a home that others do not seem to want, and multiple price reductions are a strong indicator of other buyer's lack of desire for the property. A seller can never capture the initial activity that would have occurred with a realistic price from the start.

The Group Real Estate Source. Sellers ought to stack odds in their favor this Spring. April 2010.

Make improvements that will result in interested buyers and don't waste money on those that will not. You may benefit by visiting other properties on the market to see what your competition is.

Because most people cannot visualize a potential improvement to a property, allowances are not as effective as immediate improvements. It is better to replace worn carpet rather than offer carpet allowance at closing or price to compensate for needed repairs.

The Group Inc. Real Estate. Sellers ought to Stack odds in their favor this spring. April 2010

2. Interest Rates - Several economic factors lead experts to believe that the current low interest rates cannot be sustained. Some predict that rates could be 0.5% to 1/0% higher by the end of the year. The buying power of today's interest rates will create urgency and cause buyers to act.

3. Design - Frugal is becoming fashionable with energy effciency a priority. Smaller, greener homes will be popular. Built-in storage space and practical, more conservative features will be in demand.

4. Hot Properties - Properties with very unique locations continue to be in demand. Also properties that have been recently remodeled are attracting buyers.

The Group Real Estate Insider.Trends for 2010.Vol 34, No. 2

One trait the aforementioned troubled markets have in common is that they all experienced unrealistic price appreciation during the latest boom. In Northern Colorado, meanwhile, values grew at a more modest rate. Subsequently, as prices are plunging dramatically in those once-overheated locales, prices here have been more resilient.

The main driver of real estate activity and property values in any market is jobs. Because of a diverse economy, our communities also outperform the nation in terms of employment. Nationally, the jobless rate is likely to hover this year between 10 percent and 10.5 percent. Locally, unemployment is expected to hold between 6.5 percent and 7.5 percent.

While national economic conditions bear watching, it pays to recognize that local factors go a long way in shaping what's happening in each individual community. The fundamentals of our markets are strong and make Northern Colorado a sensible place to own real estate.

The Real Estate Insider. Think Naturally, buy real estate locally. Publication of The Group, Inc. Volume 34, Number 2.

*$8,000 Available to First-Time Buyers

*$6,500 Available to Repeat Buyers

For all your tax credit questions and to receive your HOMEBUYER TAX CREDIT KIT filled with everything you need to know, talk to Tami!

Congratulations!

The grace period for compliance runs until June 15, 2011. However, application fees grow more expensive as time passes.

Call me for information about the city's Rental Housing Standards and for a copy of the Unapproved Dwelling Unit Compliance Action Form.

The Group Real Estate Insider. November 2009. Fort Collins grants grace period to out-of-compliance landlords. Fort Collins, Colorado. Volume 33, No. 10

According to the BEA, the Fort Collins-Loveland area saw its local GDP increase from $9.5 billion in 2005 to $11.04 billion by the end of 2008 - an expansion of 16.2 percent. In the same time frame, the Greeley area experienced 17.9 percent growth in GDP, from $6.089 billion to $7.18 billion. Overall, Fort Collins-Loveland is ranked No. 160 among 336 metropolitan statistical areas, and Greeley is No. 213. GDP, or gross domestic product, reflects the total value of goods and services generated in a local economy.

The following list compares shows GDP grew for Colorado's metropolitan areas between 2005 and 2008, the percentage growth in that time frame, and the national ranking for each city:

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR COLORADO'S METRO AREAS

City                  2005 GDP                   2008 GDP       3-Yr.Growth     U.S Rank

Boulder             $15.125                     $17.813           17.77%                        110

CO Springs       $21.206                       $24.062           13.46%                        86

Denver             $131.072                     $150.81           15.05%                        17

Grand Junction $3.737                         $5.227             39.87%                        260

Greeley            $6.089                         $7.185             17.99%                        213

FC/Loveland     $9.509                         $11.036           16.05%                        160

The Group Real Estate Insider. November 2009. Report shows local economic expanded from 2005-2008. Fort Collins, Colorado. Volume 33, No. 10